Climate shocks are accelerating and ecosystems are crossing thresholds once thought to be decades away. Every year, negotiators, ministers, funders, and heads of state gather at the UN Climate Summit to make decisions under enormous pressure, with very little time.
Ahead of this year’s summit, COP31, we asked the question, is resilience science reaching the negotiating room?
In this first episode of Resilience Recorded, host Lisen Schultz, Deputy Director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, talks to Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and Mattias Frumerie, Climate Ambassador and Sweden’s Head of Delegation to UNFCCC. Cibele Queiroz, Knowledge Director at Global Resilience Partnership and Centre Researcher, and Albert Norström, Science Director at the Earth Commission, Associate Professor at Stockholm Resilience Centre, provide the scientific framing for the episode.
Johan describes a mismatch between scientific evidence and policymaking. Countries such as Germany, the UK, and Sweden have legislated net zero targets for 2045 based on science from roughly ten years ago. However, global warming is accelerating through interactions with the ocean, ice sheets, and ecosystems. Policy, he argues, struggles with uncertainty and with the need for redundancy and buffers like insurance. Another obstacle is how institutions slice problems into narrow sectors, when the stability of any nation depends on global commons like the Amazon, the Greenland ice sheet, and the Atlantic overturning circulation.
Mattias takes listeners inside the negotiating room, where parties do not all act on the science in the same way. He points to the debate over whether to “note” or “welcome” the IPCC 1.5 report, and to the current push to keep IPCC reports as input to the global stocktake. He also sees promise in a shift from negotiating to implementing.
Together they explore why mitigation and adaptation should be brought closer together, what climate finance needs to fund, and what should stop being funded. Johan calls for carbon prices that reflect the true cost of emissions. Mattias highlights capacity building and the need to mobilize private capital, since public finance will not be enough.
Even though the climate outlook may look bleak, they both provide reasons to be hopeful. The solutions exist, and as Johan puts it, “the window is still open to turn this around. It’s not too late.”
About Resilience Recorded
Resilience Recorded is a podcast from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Global Resilience Partnership, and Future Earth. It brings the latest science into conversation with the people who are trying to change how we live on this planet. It draws on the Resilience Science Must-Knows, nine insights developed with input of some 200 experts and decision-makers from more than 130 organisations.